Tran’s America

A few media outlets are saying that Barack Obama needed the LGBT vote to win. We can know exactly if we knew the LGBT demographic information for each of the battleground states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin). Instead, we can look at the newest Gallup estimate. The math here is simple.

• The president won the popular vote with 50.95%.
• About 237,744,633 Americans were eligible to vote.
• Newest estimates on LGBT Americans is about 3.4% of the population (Gallup).
• A CMI poll taken during the election (November 2-4) indicated that 90% of all LGBT people voted for Mr. Obama, 6% voted Mr. Romney, and 95% of all LGBT people intend to vote.

How did the candidates do?

• Obama final vote = 65,464,068 or 50.95%
• Romney final vote = 60,781,275 or 47.31%
• The other candidates (Mr. Johnson, Ms. Stein, Mr. Goode, Ms. Barr, Mr. Anderson, and Mr. Hoefling) won 1.74% of the vote.
• 126,245,343 out of 237,744,633 = 51.4% of all eligible adults voted for either Obama or Romney.

Now, we need to see how many LGBT people voted for each candidate.

•  3.4% of the adult population is LGBT. LGBT adults in the US = 8,083,318
• 95% of LGBT people intend to vote. LGBT people who voted = (0.95 * 8,083,318) = 7,679,152
• LGBT people who voted for Obama at 90% = (0.90 * 7,679,152) = 6,911,237
• LGBT people who voted for Romney at 6% = (0.60 * 7,679,152) = 460,749

Knowing how many LGBT people voted for each candidate, we can use those numbers to set up a hypothetical situation in which each neither candidate receives the clear majority of the LGBT vote by dividing this equally.

• Obama vote share – LGBT for Obama = 65,464,068 – 6,911,237 = 58,552,831
• Romney vote share – LGBT for Romney = 60,781,275 – 460,749 = 60,320,526
• LGBT people who vote at 50% (negligible difference) = (7,679,152 / 2) = 3,839,576
• New Obama + 50% LBGT vote share = (58,552,831 + 3,839,576) = 62,392,407
• New Romney + 50% LBGT vote share = (60,320,526 + 3,839,576) = 64,160,102

We see that if the LGBT vote was evenly split (of the 95% who originally said they were voting for these candidates), Mr. Romney would have won the popular vote. How much of the LGBT vote would Mr. Obama have needed to win the popular vote?

• A simple majority is 50% plus 1 = 126,245,343 / 2 +1 = 63,122,672
• (Simple majority – Obama without the LGBT vote) / number of LGBT people intending to vote for either candidate = (63,122,672 – 58,552,831) / 7,679,152 = 0.595

Therefore, President Obama could not have won the popular vote without the LGBT vote. Mr. Obama needed about 59.5% of the LGBT vote to win the popular vote. Mr. Romney would have needed 36.5% of the LGBT vote to win the popular vote. If the Republican Party and the Mitt Romney campaign had taken a different stance on LGBT equality, this election could have had different results.

I got third place! I aim for Honorable Mention and often get the Participant ribbon in the Glue A Shoe competition of the Texas State Fair. It is a pumpernickel. I was given the idea from my friend, Ann, and she helped in the execution. I’m very happy to share this win with her! While standing around the shoe cases, I was shameless in my exclamations in my “Wow! Look at that pumpnickel! What a great shoe!” One lady took my bait and agreed with me.

My pumpernickel!

The food this year is better than normal! It’s less about the gimmicks and more about the taste (thank goodness).

• Chicken Fried Cactus Bites – If you’re a fan of nopales, you’ll like these. They had a great smoky flavor and had a nice crunch. I’m used to nopales being softer.
• Fried Bacon Cinnamon Roll - (cinnamon roll dipped in pancake batter and rolled in fried bacon crumbles) This is at the same booth as the cactus bites. DON’T EAT THIS. It’s really bad. There’s a much better quality cinnamon roll in the food court. It’s cheaper and make sure to get it with icing. If they dropped maple bacon crumbles on that other cinnamon roll, I would be a huge fan.
• Deep-Fried Divine Chocolate Tres Leches Cake - I went to this booth with the intention to buy this. Instead, I grabbed the deep fried brownies at their booth. The brownies are so ridiculously good. Instead of the chocolate drizzle, ask for more powdered sugar. The drizzled chocolate made the fried dough a little soggy where it touched.
• Deep Fried Jambalaya - This is the fried butter guy (actually a fried biscuit which has butter in it…get it?). This man does a great job with this product. It’s a legitimate entry with a great taste. I’m very happy with it!
• Deep Fried Mac-N-Cheese Slider – I’ve had a lot of good fried macaroni and cheese in my life (a lot) and I didn’t bother with it. A friend says it’s good. She said it was better once they took off the little burger patty and ate the sandwich.
• Picnic on a Stick - (pieces of spicy fried chicken alternate tater tots and slices of dill pickle, dipped in batter, and fried) The chicken in this was very well done and the flavors were nice! I liked it. It was a lot bigger than I expected.
• Fried Mexican Fire Crackers - (spicy chicken, cheese and jalapeno mix wrapped in masa dough and deep fried) If this were an appetizer at a restaurant, I would order it. The flavors are great!
• Fried Pork Wing - (pork morsel is slow cooked for six hours then lightly deep fried, rolled and tossed in a smoked bacon chipotle glaze) This was the last thing at the Fair that I tried and I was very very happy with this. I felt I couldn’t leave without finding this booth. It’s a pork rib that easily came off the bone and the glaze is extremely flavorful. We went back to the booth to find out if they have a restaurant in Dallas and was directed to the owner. She will have a food truck coming out this year called Taste of Cuba!

It was a great year at the Fair! I still find it shocking that I won something. The last day of the Texas State Fair is October 21.

If the Texas legislature had passed a political map that didn’t break the law, Texans would have voted on Super Tuesday (March 6). Our primaries have been kicked to May 29 which means I get to vote to reelect the president now. Go vote, Texas.

In celebration of me getting to vote (in the fall, I like to vote on my birthday), I put my new bumper sticker on my car. I bought it through TinaSeaMonster‘s Etsy. A consequence of having a great sticker is people trying to take photos while driving. I can see them in my rearview mirror, holding onto their phone instead of the steering wheel.

A friend wanted to invite me to a parade yesterday. I was sad to learn it was a Mardi Gras Parade, rather than a President’s Day Parade. Enjoy this trailer of Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter! In the book, the Civil War was Honest Abe’s attempt to rid the world of vampires. After I finished the book, this was a difficult concept to explain to my political science/historian friends.

One in five Britons admit that they would have sex with a 15 year old or younger.

The good political scientists over at the British Election Study asked a fun series of questions to the British pubic in their CMS surveys (September and October of 2011), basically asking, “Would you be willing to [fill in the blank]?”  When you’re looking at the chart, please do keep in mind that these percentages reflect what people are willing to admit they would do and please do keep in mind that the age of consent in Britain is 16 (versus the American age of 18 in many states).

A few of the other findings:

• Keep money found on the street: 57%
• Drive over the speed limit: 39%
• Smoke weed: 35%
• Lie in their own interests: 30%
• Make up a phony job application: 21%
• Have an affair as a married person: 19%

This chart and data was created by and belongs to the British Election Study (BES).  The BES bears no responsibility for the interpretations presented or conclusions reached based on analysis of the data here.  Please visit their website at http://www.bes2009-10.org/ for more information and data.

I love:
-German chocolate cake
-the Justice League of America
-Justice League of America with sparkles
-my husband
-my husband for knowing that my favorite place for cake is bed

Happy birthday to me!

Me: “I’ve missed you! I haven’t seen you in, like, two days.”
Him: “I know! We should go out on a date.”
Me: “You mean tomorrow? Friday?”
Him: “Yes.”
Me: “I don’t know what this means.”
Him: “You’re going to find out the hard way.”